Ever since there was the announcement of RIL with Saudi Aramco there has been a huge hype in the financial markets as it’s like a marriage made in heaven. Saudi Aramco is a state hold company situated at Saudi Arabia it recently became the world largest company by revenue which was reported to be $46.9 billion. Aramco’s main business is to extract crude oil and it is also one of the largest crude oil exporters in the world. As it is not the first time that Saudi Aramco is investing in India. Aramco’s first investment in India was in 2017 when it opened an office in the Indian capital to expand the company’s international portfolio in India and last year it announced a joint venture with a consortium of government-owned refiners to set up a $44 billion refinery and a petrochemical project on the country’s west coast. So now what is special in this deal which has suddenly made an impact in the business of RIL as well as in the country’s economy.
On the other hand, Reliance Industries Limited is one of the fortune 500 and it is one of the biggest companies in India by revenue. RIL is having the world’s largest refining hub and the refining business and it is the most profitable business of RIL, it has transformed India from being a net importer of petroleum products to a net exporter. In the decades history of RIL’s business it has always been a solo player in the market but it all changed when its Chairman & Managing Director Mr. Mukesh Ambani announced at its AGM(Annual General Meeting) that “Saudi ARAMCO and Reliance have agreed to form a long-term partnership in its O2C (Oil to Chemical) division. Saudi Aramco will invest for a 20% stake in RIL’s O2C division at an enterprise valuation of 75billion dollars.” It is surely a tectonic shift in the decades-long history of Reliance Industry as well as for Indian economy as it is one of the biggest FDI (Foreign Direct Investments) in India, and also one of the biggest stake buyouts in India. It’s like a marriage made in heaven because the Largest Oil Explorer (i.e. SAUDI ARAMCO) in the world tied up with India’s largest Oil to Chemicals Company (i.e. RIL). This deal will be bigger than the last buyout which was between Walmart and Flipkart which was at 16 billion dollars for 77%.
THE DEAL STRUCTURE
• Aramco has agreed to buy out a 20% stake in the most profitable and core business of RIL which is oil-to-chemicals division. • Aramco will not own any shares directly in the oil to-chemicals unit for the first five years. It will acquire direct stake only after five years when the O2C division will be carved out of RIL and become a subsidiary. • Aramco will be getting one seat on the board of Reliance Industries and a couple of seats on the board of the oil to-chemicals unit. • Aramco will also get to appoint some of the key management personnel in the O2C division, possibly the COO (Chief Operating Officer). • About 50% will be received by March 2020 and the rest will be in 25% being paid on each successive anniversary of the transaction.
WIN-WIN SITUATION FOR BOTH ECONOMIES
Aramco will be gaining access to the RIL’s vast refining and petrochemicals complex and the fast-growing Indian market and the deal comes with an assurance to buy 25 million tons a year from Saudi’s crude on a long-term basis making it easily reclaim the top supplier spot from Iraq. But now American sanctions on Iran and Venezuela are taking barrels out off the market which is providing an opening for new suppliers where Russia is in search for new customers and Saudi Arabia leads OPEC efforts to reduce production and increase the prices. India imports 85% of its crude requirements and the International Energy Agency forecasts it will be the world’s fastest-growing oil consumer through 2040. As the market share of Saudi crude oil has been falling, so Aramco has been taking stakes in assets where they can place oil and increasing its presence by investing in Indonesia, South Korean, China’s Liaoning province and in Malaysia.
RIL-ARAMCO deal is a mark of close and strengthening ties between the two nations and it has been announced at a time when Pakistan is trying to rally the Muslim world against India for its move on Kashmir. As Prime Minister Modi’s key foreign policy has been to improve India’s relationship with countries in the West, where India has huge strategic and economic interests. In the first term, Modi focused on building ties with key players to safeguard India’s interests and, at the same time, strike a personal chord with nearly all West and Asian leaders. Modi’s West policy has increased India in a region of critical importance. Iran was the country’s third-biggest supplier in the last year, exporting around 24 million tons. But as the tensions grew between Iran and America the imports from Iran have dropped to zero in May. Venezuelan oil exports have been also falling for the last four years due to the struggles to cope with American penalties.
In June, RIL had a net liability of $36.9 billion, with the refining and petrochemicals business amounting to $5.6 billion. As the debt and liabilities had increased from $19 billion to $65 billion in FY 2019 and its net debt had risen from $2.7 billion to $12.4 billion in this period and additional debt at the consolidated balance sheet rose from $9.4 billion to $20.6 billion.
This debt situation had concerned many investors and analysts. During RIL’s AGM its Chairman & Managing Director Mr. Mukesh Ambani announced that “RIL has a clear road map to become a zero net debt company in next 18 months i.e. by 31st March 2021 “as a part of deal Saudi Aramco may shell out about $14 billion for the stake purchase, which will, in turn, reduce RIL’s net liability figure by about 40%, Aramco is also paying a premium for RIL’s assets. This move will generate free cash flows for RIL to repay its debt and become a zero-net debt by the next 18. The oil retail outlets of Reliance already had a tie-up with British Petroleum (BP) which was distributed as 49%-51%, RIL holding 51% and BP holding 49% and after the deal with ARAMCO the stake of RIL will be dropped to 40% as ARAMCO will be getting 11% stake in oil retail as a part of the deal, hence making BP the major stakeholder.
Now, why the RIL’s stock should be on your radar, RIL gave their vision that they want to grow by 15% CAGR their EBITDA, also the total EBITDA will be coming as a form of 50% from O2C(oil to chemical) business and the other 50% will be coming from JIO and Retail business, if compared now which is 73% comes from O2C(oil to chemical) business and the other 27% comes from JIO and Retail business. If the vision is achieved by RIL then it will be one of the biggest achievements of the company so far. By seeing the strategies placed by RIL it seems that it will surely achieve its target, in turn, making it richer in its valuations and will lead to more money for investors, making now as an opportune time to invest and making this whole deal as a very positive sign.
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OFFICIAL PROMOTIONAL PARTNER: IBS MESSENGER
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