-By Banibrata Ghosh
Introduction
The equity mutual fund industry has always been a shining beacon of opportunity, promising much for both retail investors- the common man who wants to grow his wealth and huge institutional investors like pension funds and insurance companies who want to achieve mammoth long-term growth. But in the current market situation, which is undeniably liquid and uncertain, the fund managers are using a portfolio of risk-averse strategies in order to come out successful in this uncertainty and to convince their investors.
Market volatility is the spillover of sharp and non-recurring stock price fluctuations within an almost short time. During the last two years, all upswings of equity markets reflected upward shifts in geopolitics, interest rate hike by central banks, inflation drives, and uncertainty relating to the global economy. This has led to mutual funds taking protectionist measures in order to keep the portfolio balanced and so.
What is the meaning of "Keeping Powder Dry"?
It can also be interpreted to mean holding cash or other liquid assets. This strategy presents investors with the ability to seize an investment opportunity when a market is in decline or correcting itself in some form. With this type of strategy, the equity mutual funds will be able to buy quality stocks at cheaper and more appealing valuations while keeping their portfolio managed at optimal levels to not over-expose themselves to a specific type of risk.
Why do equity mutual funds hold such large amounts of cash today?
Case Studies: Examples of how Equity Mutual Funds can apply in Real-World Situations.
1. Post-COVID Recovery:
In the severe market crash that saw the meltdown in 2020, most equity mutual funds had held cash reserve, which they intelligently invested into sectors that have been battered and were trading low. As a result of the subsequent recoveries in the market then these funds benefited with impressive and noteworthy returns.
2. Volatility in the Banking Sector:
During 2023, during which a sequence of banking crises was coupled with increasing interest rates, the equity mutual funds failed to change their focus away from the resilient sectors; instead, they rigidly maintained their strategies of investment.
1. Trends in Cash Reserves Over Some Period of Time
The cash balance in equity mutual funds has been observed to rise during periods of market instability like the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 crash in 2020, and the banking crisis in 2023.
2. Distribution across Other Industries in time of Crisis.
3. Mutual fund performance during the growth stage
Limitations of Holding Cash
1. Opportunity Cost: Given a high cash balance, there is a heightened likelihood of missing sudden market rallies since idle cash earns negligible returns and retards comprehensive financial growth.
2. Investor Perspective: This risk-averse nature of the retail investors can thus be attributed to underperformance and induce redemptions.
3. Reduced Returns: The longer duration of cash holdings may dissolve overall portfolio returns, especially in capital market where equity outperform.
4. Inflation Risk: The value of cash loses in real time that results in decrease in purchasing power.
Current and Background Conditions. As of October 2024, India's best 20 asset management firms held equity mutual funds to the tune of ₹1.7 trillion in cash, or some 5.5% of their total assets, a reflection of liquidity. On the cash levels, the moderation is seen from 6% compared to last month but remained high for a typically stable market. SBI, PPFAS, and Quant were the fund houses with the highest cash levels. These companies are cautious and prudent regarding the current market trend.
Future Outlook of Mutual Funds
By adopting dynamic allocation procedures, mutual funds can adjust to future risks as the Indian markets change. This entails diversification into asset classes like fixed income or international equities during periods of high valuations while preserving liquidity to profit from market crashes. Algorithmic models, artificial intelligence, and advanced analytics can further refine judgments to accurately forecast and respond to market developments. Navigating unstable conditions and building long-term confidence will also require greater openness and investor education.
Market Indices Influence
Key Takeaways:-
Equity mutual funds have adopted a cautious approach by maintaining significant cash reserves, with holdings reaching approximately ₹1.7 trillion (5.5% of AUM) as of October 2024.
Despite market turbulence, showcasing a balance between cautious cash retention and strategic investments in undervalued opportunities.
Persistently high market valuations, coupled with sluggish earnings growth, have prompted fund managers to hold back from full deployment, awaiting more favorable conditions.
Inflows Driving increased liquidity has enabled mutual funds to maintain their flexibility while responding to changing market dynamics.
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